Unusual fall off in reservations after a gangbusters August, any thoughts?

Note the graph. I am having my best August in my 22nd month on Airbnb. this month I put my second house on the market. Yet SUDDENLY, September through December has gone to zero? Mind you, August will easily be the highest total in my short Airbnb history. I have checked page views, & although they have fallen off since mid-summer as one would expect, it still seems highly unusual that suddenly I have no bookings in the third trimester. Any thoughts or advice?

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being solidly booked since June, I only have three renters for September. I would normally attribute it to being back in school but since many schools are not opening in Calif, I don’t know why now.

There’s been so much talk about a “second wave” in the Fall. I imagine people are waiting to see what happens.

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This is an odd post. Did you hear there’s a pandemic?

Did you find that your summer filled up last minute? People are waiting like never before to do reserve last minute. There’s every reason to think that this fall and winter are going to be brutal, probably with new total lockdowns. Frankly, given Airbnb’s policy to let people have full refunds you should be glad people aren’t booking in advance.

Meaning you opened a new Airbnb?

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yes, a new airbnb. I have never seen as great of divergence as currently between August & September. I have, indeed, heard of a pandemic, although I have thankfully avoided death, as clearly you have. Stay safe! This “pandemic” did not affect August in the least. Best month ever for this guy. So I worry about September. As for the draconian lockdowns of March & April. I don’t think they can do it. The cure has been far more destructive than the virus. Policy makers don’t have the guts to try that again. But I here you on the cancellers.

Gosh, I just went through the “second wave” this summer. I am told it was horrible. Sure hope we don’t have another!

My cabins book up just a few weeks in advance. I would not worry about it.

RR

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Definitely.

We clearly have divergent views on the pandemic. Putting it in quotes would be like saying the “9-11 terrorist attacks” or the “shooting” at Stoneman Douglas high school. By the time you read this over 150,000 Americans will be dead from coronavirus by the official government agency count which is purposely undercounting.

Nevertheless I’d suggest that the pandemic is leading to your best month ever because you are no longer competing with lots of other options. I don’t know if there will be lockdowns or not but the money is on it being an ugly fall and winter.

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I would have to agree with putting that in quotations, because we are still in the first wave.

Do you think the pandemic is not real?

I read 167,000 this morning but it is likely over 200,000

RR

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I saw a quote this morning that was closer to 150K but yes it is over 166k and perhaps I was looking at an old page. That’s directly attributed to covid. Of course the excess death rate for the last 4-5 months is about 30% higher.

I’m not surprised there are coronavirus deniers. After studying the Holocaust I realize there has never been a more well documented crime and yet there are people who persist in saying it didn’t happen or wasn’t that bad. So yeah, humanity continues to disappoint.

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I don’t know where you are, but as @JohnF said elsewhere, many people appear to be booking at the last minute, once they are sure they can safely travel.

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I can’t comment about Nov / December because I usually only open my calendar 3 months prior; Too much can happen and it gives me the flexibility to take a break, host family, friends, neighbors etc.

I have noticed that many of my guests of late are booking within a few weeks or month of arrival at least during the summer.

However my September is almost fully booked and October is about 3/4 booked. Those two months tend be near perfect weather in this area so its understandable why they are booking up.

Like you, my summer bookings are far busier than the prior two years I have hosted. Without knowing where you are, I can say (for me) there is no reason to come to Phoenix in the summer. The only demand for Phoenix in summer, in years prior, has been family visiting relatives or business travelers. This year it has been people looking to have a socially distanced break by a pool, something that they can’t do at a hotel. Still it’s unfathonable to me why anyone would come here in the summer but they are.

Humorously I got this message from AirBNB this morning, after my August calendar just booked up, and after I had raised my rates

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Agree that everyone is booking 2 to 4 weeks prior. I have no booking after Sept 9 but I expect I will get more bookings in Sept and Oct as ideal weather conditions in the mountains. After that, who knows

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I’m glad you had a good summer. I agree with others saying last minute bookings are the norm.

I’m impressed/surprised you would launch a second listing. I changed one listing to LTR. I wish I could do the same with my other condo.

In my area, I don’t think rentals will return to normal for at least a year; maybe 2. When things start to change, I anticipate more competition. Real estate has sold amazingly quickly at premium prices to people who don’t want to be stuck in NY & NJ when the next wave hits.

During the spring lock down, if you owned a home in the area, you were allowed to enter with a two week/quarantine required (honor system). Walking the beach or playing golf can be more enjoyable that sheltering in a place that is cold & snowy.

Down the road, I’m sure these new owners will list them for STR, you know, because its “easy money” to help to pay the bills.

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I’m guessing you are young and Covid 19 has not taken anyone you love or ruined their lungs, heart or kidneys.

I can survive and adapt with a tight tight tight budget. Death is a different story.

I genuinely hope everyone you love stays healthy & safe.

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I genuinely wish I had the grace and patience you have.

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The US no longer meets appropriate levels to be considered “pandemic”, which is why I use the quotes. It requires 7% of overall deaths to be considered “pandemic”. Currently, COVID-19 is running less than 2% of all deaths in US. These are figures from CDC. Not my point of view. As to your point of view, I believe it is valid because we may all have opinions & seems a tad hysterical. But I digress. The number of Americans, by the way, is 158,000. The football players who won’t be playing at Ohio State have a greater chance of death by playing football than they do of COVID-19. Literally. Forgive me for not having the compassion that you use to virtue signal. My parents are old too. Mother has Alzheimer’s, so I have suffered. Who is Stoneman Douglas? You are so compassionate, you care about people whose fancy names I don’t even know! NPR appears to be taking away your ability to think critically. But thank you for the lecture & the counterintuitive conclusion that you draw in your final paragraph. All the best.

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Here we go

The definition of a pandemic is “ A pandemic is an epidemic occurring on a scale that crosses international boundaries, usually affecting people on a worldwide scale.”

What you are referring to is the severity scale of a pandemic.

I hate to hear your mom has Alzheimers. My mom passed away from its effects. It is an evil disease.

Btw-NPR didn’t rob me of Critical thinking. My bachelors of science in nursing and patient care experience definitely changed the way I look at the world.

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Denial is not a river in Egypt. It’s not the flu. Everyone I know who has had it has still not fully recovered, even one that was diagnosed in mid-April. It results in lasting damage to heart, lungs, blood vessels, kidney, and liver.

Get used to the idea that we’re going to have another shutdown that won’t end until we have a widely available and used vaccine(s). I’m still working at 73, and I’d like to do so for another couple of decades, but I have a health history that makes exposure to COVID-19 extremely risky for me, and many other folks also have vulnerabilities. Anybody with common sense is avoiding unnecessary exposure, wearing a mask in public, and avoiding superspreader deniers like you.

NPR appears to be taking away your ability to think critically.

Ya know, you gotta stop watching Alex Jones and reading all that QAnon stuff.

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Edited to add the latest (got another huge long term last minute booking (check in tomorrow) as well as the approximate line of what my average was in 2019.

I have seen an overall increase since the pandemic. I had an unusually slow first couple months and then did a bathroom remodel just as the pandemic started to lock things down here.
Since I have had a HUGE increase, not only in bookings, but in number of people and length of stay and more and more last minute bookings as well as something new…booking 2 months in advance!

I actually had an interesting situation this week in that I had a booking for week 2 days out and then the morning of check-in it was canceled with no notice and before I even saw the email I had a new booking less than 7 minutes out for the weekend. It is a little unfortunate in that I had already established a waiting list for if/when that week got canceled since inquirers new to AirBnB were too slow to book.

Additionally, I have had someone who had contacted me months ago about a month long booking book way out because he waited too long to book that month where he is staying now.

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