I read several articles on snowbirds, as my sister has a rental in the Phoenix area and we put our condo for rent in Mesa, as well. (Our son opted not to attend the university this year and moved back in with us.) These are usually longer 2 to 3 mth rentals but they do use booking.com, airbnb, vrbo, furnished rentals , and snowbird rental platforms. Apparently many canadians in West Canada travel to Arizona and Eastern Canadians to Florida November thru April. Many Canadians travel by car so they can bring their pets etc…The border is still closed and, as of now, they can not drive but are still allowed to fly. I noticed a huge interest in our Mesa rental, but in our communications, it is apparent snowbirds are waiting until the last minute to commit. They are waiting to see what happens. I see the same thing happening on my str, with reservations coming in 1 to 2 weeks prior. I wonder if Floridian rentals are seeing the same thing and if they will be moving to more short term rentals, as they may not be able to count on the usual snowbird business from Canada. I was able to rent to travelling nurses via furnished rentals and was very happy to have them. What does the forum think? Any crystal balls out there?
I didn’t know that they could still fly to the US from Canada. Will they also be able to fly back to Canada?
I do not know. Here is one of the articles I read. It seems some car travel is allowed
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To answer the second part, “should they,” I say no. Not enough people voluntarily do what is best which is why humans created govt and laws 6000+ years ago. Canada could keep the border closed.
Snowbirds within the US aren’t going to be stopped from driving south so I imagine there will be bookings. Not as many as in a non covid year because some senior citizens will make choices to stay safe. Some states might mandate restrictions if hospitals remain overwhelmed. I wouldn’t want to risk going to an area where hospitals might become overwhelmed but if I were in such an area I might look to get out.
I’d imagine some U.S. snowbirds will. My parents in Michigan aren’t typically snowbirds, but are staring down a winter of being completely isolated in their house, not even being able to see the few friends they have been spending time with over the summer outside. So they’re considering driving down here to Texas where at least they can walk around the block and see their grandkid. I’d prefer they did that -the temptation to see people inside up north is just too great.
Any Canadian citizen or resident is allowed back in, but they have to quarantine for 14 days . And I’m not so sure about the driving thing. I’ve read about Canadians trying to drive into the US and being turned back at the border. Escaping the cold or seeing your grandkids isn’t considered to be “essential” travel. 
Going by what I am hearing about the people choosing to use the fly-in loophole to get to snowbird locations, @Mountainhost, you don’t want those particular Canadians. Take Bob and Joyce. They won’t listen to reason, and nothing is good enough for them.
The Canadians who would be the best guests are those who are staying home.
Not sure what to expect here in SW Florida. Being shut down during the usual spring/summer time when a lot of 'birds book, we’re looking kinda lean. But then, our peak period in Fort Myers is late Jan-early May —m and we’ve gone this far looking lean even in previous years.
My regular Canadian snowbirds have not booked. Feb-April is usually booked by now.
However January is booked by USA snowbirds
I think any snowbird bookings for Feb-April will Probably be USA based.
This year’s snowbird rentals will be dependent on many things so I agree guests will wait until last minute to reserve.
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We’re already seeing snowbirds here in Florida. They are coming from the northern US states rather than Canada though.
Phoenix here, and I share your assessment of the market.
I believe THEY will come, but THEY may not be the typical “snowbirds”.
I had a couple from MA reach out to me a month or two ago interested in booking for a few weeks in March. I told them I’d reach out to them before I opened the 2021 calendar (middle of November) but last week I received an email advising that they plan to stay at home because of the Pandemic. They are high risk (70’s).
With that said, there are still those who will to come. Those tech nomads who will go anywhere with WIFI to get out of confined city circumstances (SF, NYC). Those guests who came during the record setting heat this summer will gladly return in prime season. In addition, Those from PNW who crave sun, Those from MidWest who crave warmth, Those from CA who are just looking for an escape.
And we still need to see what Spring Training will be this year.
Should they come? It depends on the circumstances. if they follow Covid protocols then I suggest that individual AirBNBs offer a much safer alternative to Hotels.
Interpretation please! I know I am missing areference here. Lol
I’m a winter traveler when I can afford it, but not a snowbird.
Most Alaskan snowbirds I know plan to tough out the winter here.
My friends that had just arrived in April or early May from AZ/CA/OR have not returned. One couple stayed in AZ while he fought cancer. He died in September but she’s not traveling.
The folks I know with Maui or Big Island condos aren’t going there any time soon. No one wants to fly unless they absolutely have to. This from the state with the highest per capita airline miles.
Florida person here. Yes, the snowbirds are showing up. It seems the Canadians and Europeans have been replaced by Americans that can’t get to their usual wintering continent.
Food for thought…last March my area kicked out all short term renters and would not allow new STRs. Long term renters of 30 nights or more were not affected.
My LTRs for March, April, May cancelled because of the Canadian border closure.
USA LTR snowbirds may not be affected if we have another STR ban.
I will be marketing my condo heavily for LTR snowbirds…I need the rent money.
Good to know. Crossing my fingers that Arizona Covid numbers Drop this spring and the hospitals hang in there.
Truth, Muddy. If we take a vacation in Cuba, we will need to quarantine for 2 weeks. Fortunately we have the facility at Bob’s cottage. He is still thinking it over.
Our original wish was a month. But now we are looking at an 11 day 5 star and 14 days quarantine. Because his cottage is isolated, it’s feasible.
I read about Canadians who tried to drive into the US in transit to Mexico. They weren’t allowed into the US, but because they had exited Canada by like 10 meters onto US territory, only to turn right around, they were told they had to quarantine for 14 days.
Oh bother. That would wreck any one’s day (or 2 weeks)