Thread on economic indicators (US)

If you are in the US here is a picture to help you think about how the crisis will effect the economy in your state:

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We are already at Great Depression levels. That thing we call “the economy” is much different now but still, that should give everyone pause. I still see too many hosts who appear to be thinking things will be “back to normal” in the near term like May or June.


13% drop yr/yr in on time rental payments.

Alaska is yellow because our infected numbers are still low and we only went on shutdown 2 weeks ago. Much summer tourism related employment here is either college students (local and from lower 48), semi retired folks, and seasonal gift shop folks who come up from the Caribbean for the summer.

However, Alaska has been in a recession for 2 years due to low oil prices (at $50/barrel). We have been losing population for 2 years, and now oil is down around $20/barrel. State government depends on oil income, and state spending has fueled much of the Alaska economy. In addition, the state is still writing a program so that self employed folks like me can file for and collect an unemployment check thanks to the new federal UI funding.

Losing our projected 1.5 million cruise passengers and 300,000 independent travelers isn’t helping, either. I’m not planning on tours from the cruise passengers, and I’m betting that we’ll still have the current 14 day quarantine on arrival until late summer.

Conoco just announced that they are shutting down drilling on the North Slope in order to avoid infections in their worker housing. So Alaska’s economic indicators are flatlining except for the 4 operating hard rock mines and a summer fishing season that brings in a lot of temp workers for fish processing plants in rural areas with minimal medical facilities, communities where entire villages and generations were wiped out by the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, and they haven’t forgotten.

I figure it will take cruise ship traffic at least 3 years to rebound. I expect my Air business to be doing great next summer (2021) and dead this summer.


@NordlingHouse thanks for this thoughtful and informative post.

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Is there an update to this chart. I wonder what it is today?

Please post the update when you find it

Updated chart