One opinion on which areas of the economy will be slow to recover

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"… some areas of the economy that will not come back, at least not in the next five years.

These include consumer spending levels, many jobs, commercial real estate occupancy, global tourism levels and luxury goods spending. "

A friend of mine told me today that American Airlines are cutting 30% of management. She and her husband have until 10 June to decide if they will take a voluntary early leave package. Another acquaintance who was a flight attendant says that United Airlines needs 3000, not 25,000, flight attendants.

Look at what the rich people and corporations do, not what they say.

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Elder daughter works for a high end decor item company in NYC, and sales have not gone down nearly as much as expected. We speculate that the wealthy who fled the city for second homes or rentals in the Hamptons, upstate, CT, etc. are now bored, looking around and saying “I really need to update this place.”

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I first thought this was ‘The Onion’ but restaurants are suffering big time and “ya gotta do what ya gotta do”

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I’d rather eat at home, alone. That doesn’t look like anything I’d consider a pleasurable dining experience.

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The same with politicians, especially Cheeto Man.

Given the cancellation of Boeing plane orders and Airbus plane orders, the wholesale retirement of aircraft that in a booming economy would still be flying, and the aforementioned retirement offers, I expect airlines and their schedules to shrink drastically.

What I don’t understand is that the cruise lines are still launching new virus incubators and planning even more, when governments won’t even allow their current ships full of marooned crew members to dock and discharge them in their home countries. Cruises don’t work if you can’t go somewhere interesting.

Canada just cancelled the rest of the Canadian Northeast and WA-BC-Alaska cruise seasons, and many winter destination ports are closed, some for the next year. The entire travel industry will not recover until several years after a vaccine is widely available.

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And many of us are thinking 12-18 months when a vaccine typically takes years. I don’t trust any “warp speed” efforts so ironically I’ll probably be joining the anti-vaxxers, Gates conspiracy theorists and flat earthers in refusing a trumpvaccine for the trumpvirus.

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Not to mention how long it would take to build up enough stock and get people in for vaccinations.

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I would expect mass vaccination events where they use the airgun for subdermal insertion, like they did for the Salk vaccine. That’s if they can’t come up with an oral vaccine like the Sabin oral polio vaccine. I’m old enough I had the Salk vaccinations, with needles. I had classmates who had to live with braces, and one who is now suffering a polio relapse.

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That’s why I’m much more interested in effective treatments if you do get the virus, than holding out for a quick vaccine. If they can control the symtoms so they don’t lead to suffering and death, then a vaccine isn’t so urgent.

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Regardless of treatments or vaccines, a significant part of the population is unwilling to even attempt “going back to normal” in part because the culture is effed up and the leadership is a net negative. If I had confidence in some sort of system (healthcare, government, etc) maybe I would feel more like going on a trip or shopping. But there are many of us who feel the only way to stay safe during this madness is to stay home, and prepare for the next day’s nightmare headline. This percent of the population which I’m estimating conservatively as about a third is going to be responsible for a lot of economic pain. Stores, restaurants, bars and churches can open but you can’t make anyone patronize them.

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You won’t catch me travelling or eating out or any of those things for quite awhile. While some Mexicans are informed and taking precautions, the infections and death rate are climbing and most Mexicans I see out and about in my area are maskless and not maintaining any distancing. I do go out very briefly to a local store or two once every 3 days or so, masked up and with my hand sanitizer, etc. and make a big shopping trip to Costco and the supermarket once a month, but those big stores are requiring masks, sterilize the carts, and there’s lots of space to maintain distance. When I get home I kick off my flipflops at the gate, disrobe, kick the “shopping clothes” into a corner of the terrace near the outdoor/indoor shower, and thoroughly wash myself. Then I set to washing down the groceries I’ve brought home. If they are non-perishables that I don’t need to use right away, I’ll just leave them in the back of the car for several days, at which point I figure they are safe to handle.
Non-essential businesses have been mandated to be closed for the past 2 months, but they are now set to open things back up on June 1st, including vacation rentals. There’s been no cases in my town, as far as I’m aware, as they’ve been keeping all but residents and delivery vehicles out, so I’m quite prepared to see cases start to surface and quickly rise, as they have everywhere else where people have stupidly pushed to"get back to normal". Very scary times.

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A good friend of mine just bought a brand new Chevy truck yesterday. She said it was very busy at the dealer and she was there at least 5 hours. Another friend posted a picture of his new Chevy truck in another city. Yesterday was the last day of 0% interest and other covid promotions. So pent up demand for vehicles was released apparently. If we have a V shaped recovery all my doom and gloom predictions will be thankfully wrong. But in the US the explosion of rage tells me that one segment of the economy is damn tired of being exploited. Maybe it will be a summer of rage like 1964.

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I’d bet sales of motor homes and campers will go up. People are going to be thinking in terms of vacationing in a way where they have control of their enviromnment to stay safe. Travelling around in your own rig is going to be preferrable to flying, taking taxis or Ubers and staying in hotels or strs.